Three weeks ago, if I told you that Jacksonville was GETTING points against the Colts you would have rolled your eyes and spit in my face. Yes, Blake Bortles has been trash. He has been for years and they went to the playoffs last year. The benching of Blake and the recent losses has been in the spotlight. Fornette is back this week so I expect them to run him into the ground and keep the clock ticking. A low scoring, time of possession type of game certainly doesn’t’ hurt when you have the Jacksonville Jaguars Defense. I may take the Jags on the Moneyline, but will gladly take the points for internet publishing purposes.
Pick #2: Detroit Lions +7 @ Chicago Bears
The Lions are probably the biggest question mark in the league right now. One week, they are beating the Patriots in Primetime and the next they are losing to the Dallas Cowboys. The Bears don’t have quite the up-and-down question marks in terms of being real or not. They are good. The question is how good. I think that the Bears are riding the high wave of having just murdering the Bills(cool story, bros) and has inflated the line a couple of points. If you made me guess this line before opening, I would have suggested Bears -3.5 and would anticipate it getting up to 4 or so. I think Stafford keeps this one close and the Bears ultimately win by a field goal. The win keeps us asking how real they are or not for another week.
Pick #3: Kansas Chiefs -17 vs. Arizona Cardinals
It wouldn’t be fair for you the reader if I simply picked three of the most valuable bets on the board with sitting points to try to pad my resume, so it’s time to lay some points. Not like there’s any other laying going on involving me this weekend. The only other line that has been this high this year was the Buffalo Bills at the Minnesota Vikings and the Bills somehow won. This is all about game theory and regression to the mean, or at least I have talked myself into that. I wanted to take the points, I really did. Then I started thinking of score possibilities. The first couple of guesses in my head: 35-17, 42-21, 45-24. I suddenly could not hypothesize a score that had the Cardinals covering. I don’t have any sabermetrics for you on this one, just a gut feeling. The backdoor will be wide open at the end, but don’t be afraid of the big number. The smart people that make these lines set it that high for a reason.
TRAP OF THE WEEK:
Those nice casinos in the desert and Atlantic City don’t build themselves. Bookmakers will set a trap and half to try to get the average office jockey like you and me to bite at what appears to be a lock from our cubicles on our phones.
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets -7
If you can’t talk yourself into staying away from this mess of a game, you need counseling. I understand wanting to put a few bucks on a game to get some edge but this isn’t a night game. It’s a 1:00 EST game, where there are plenty of other games. I think the bigger trap of this game is laying with the Jets here. Clearly, as has been documented in great detail by this fine publication, Buffalo is a dumpster fire. I think the Bookmakers are going to try to tease this down so you all talk yourself into it. “Guys, it’s a touchdown vs. the Bills. Easy call brah!” I am the last person that is going to talk you into placing any type of dollar amount on the Buffalo Bills, but on an over/under that is already in the mid-30s, points are already projected to be scarce. I could see the Jets winning 10-6, or 13-7. Knowing the Bills, they could backdoor cover this with a late field goal. I would not count on this though, so I would not bet on the Bills either, especially considering that Josh McCown is probably an upgrade at QB for the Jets at the moment. No matter if you like the insurance of points or betting against the shittiest of teams, neither of which I can blame you for. This game is a trap for both sides of the line. Stay away.
NOTE: I am not a pro or ‘sharp money’ guy. I do not have an advanced degree in statistics. Bet at your own risk and don’t sue Office Jockeys if you parlay this all and doesn’t hit or if I completely whiff on my trap of the week.
Written by Girth Brooks