Last weeks picks went about as well as my sex life as of late. Anyways, here’s your picks.
Record Last Week: 0-2-1
If having your gambling column debut record in week 1 resembling the Cleveland Browns’ record through three weeks isn’t humbling, I don’t know it is.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 @ New York Giants
I hate to devalue home field advantage, especially a team from Florida heading to the north, but how in the heck are the Bucs a dog here? The Bucs did not get in the end zone last week, but they moved the ball. I still cannot believe that the New York Giants are favored in a football game in the 2018 season. The Bucs lose to the Skins and get undervalued like this. I could go on and on but in reality, it’s Fitz vs. Eli. GIMME THE FITZ MAGIC ON THE ROAD.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5
Home Dogs gotta eat. The Steelers have been good as of late. The Jaguars have not. I attempted to rid myself of my recency bias of replaying the AFC Playoff game from last year but I just cannot. I have to take the Jags. Yes, the Jags have been jaggin off in the worst type of way on the football field but they’re the team that sneaks up on games like this. I laid the points on the Pats earlier in the year only for Blake Bortles to outperform Tom Brady. It was unreal. That being said, I am not taking the Jaguars on the Moneyline. I think the Steelers get it done. This is a MUST WIN spot for the Jags. I do not think that they will win, but I think that they finally show up and cover the six and a half.
Houston Texans -3.5 @ Washington Redskins
Both teams are 6-3. Crazy, huh? I won’t bore you here. I know the Texans are on the road and are due for a letdown. I agree. I will probably bet against them next week after they win 7 in a row. They’re coming off the bye and the Skins O-Line is over halfway depleted. This seems problematic when you have JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney lining up on the other side of a second string line.
With teams having the same record and the Skins being at home, this -3.5 tells you all you need to know about the right play. If this were even an even match game, Vegas would make it a Pick Em to get money from both sides. This is a big industry and the casinos must protect themselves so a line like this is Vegas knowing that Houston is the side here. This may contradict what I’m saying in other portions of this blog but everything happens for a reason and usually when two teams have the same record, the lines not set at 3.5. I have overtheorized here but take the healthy, historically good d line vs a second string band of losers and thank me later.
The trap of the Week: Denver Broncos @ Chargers -7
I told you not to bet the Bills last week and they won by over 30 with Matt Barkley at the helm, so feel free to go the opposite way on this one, as well as all of my other picks. After opening this line at 7.5, the smart guys quickly moved it to 7. Since then we’ve got roughly 70 percent of tickets coming in on the Chargers. Mission Accomplished. Folks now think that they have to take the Chargers at the value while the line is at 7. Listen, I love the Chargers. With the Chiefs doing special things, I truly believe that they are one of the most overlooked teams in the league. It’s usually around this time of year when people start to realize they’re good and they fall apart, or Vise Versa where they start off slow and then turn it on just a little too late. The Broncos are not a good team, but they cover. We’re at the part of the year where there are contenders and teams that get branded as awful because they’re out of contending, leading to a few points higher on the line than usual. This is one of those cases in my opinion. While it may look like laying a full touchdown at home with a clearly better team is the value play, it is really a trap.